Electric Vehicle Industry in India: Why Foreign Investors Should Pay Attention

The electric vehicle industry in India is picking pace with 100% FDI possible, new manufacturing hubs, and increased push to improving charging infrastructure. Federal subsidies and policy favoring deeper discounts for Indian-made electric two-wheelers as well as a boost for localized ACC battery storage production are other growth drivers for the Indian EV industry.

EV sales have surged more than 2,218 percent over the past three years, with over 4,42,901 electric cars sold in FY 2023 (till December 9), as compared to 19,100 sold in FY 2020.

The global automotive industry is undergoing a paradigm shift at present in trying to switch to alternative/less energy intensive options. India, too, is investing in this electric mobility shift.

The burden of oil imports, rising pollution, Russia-Ukraine war escalating price inflation, as well as international commitments to combat global climate change are key factors motivating India’s policies to speed up the transition to e-mobility on one hand and growing consumer appetite on the other.

Electric vehicle industry in India: Growth targets

The Indian automotive market is slated to be the third largest by 2030 in terms of volume. Catering to a vast domestic market, reliance on the conventional modes of fuel intensive mobility will not be sustainable. In an effort to address this, federal policymakers are developing a mobility option that is “Shared, Connected, and Electric” and have projected an ambitious target of achieving 100 percent electrification by 2030.

By making the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), India stands to benefit on many fronts: it has a relative abundance of renewable energy resources and availability of skilled manpower in the technology and manufacturing sectors.

According to an independent study by CEEW Centre for Energy Finance (CEEW-CEF), the EV market in India will be a US$206 billion opportunity by 2030 if India maintains steady progress to meet its ambitious 2030 target. This would require a cumulative investment of over US$180 billion in vehicle production and charging infrastructure. In 2021, the Indian EV industry attracted US$6 billion in investment and is becoming steadily more attractive to private equity/venture capital investors.

Another report by India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) projects that the Indian EV market will grow at a CAGR of 36 percent till 2026. The EV battery market is also projected to grow at a CAGR of 30 percent during the same period. Meanwhile, India's EV market is estimated to grow at 49 percent CAGR in the 2022-2030 period in a business as usual scenario as per the IESA report. Overall, by 2030, the EV industry is set to create 10 million direct jobs and 50 million indirect jobs (IVCA-EY-Induslaw report). India is also witnessing the rise of a sizeable EV financing market, with Niti Aayog projecting it to be worth US$50 billion by 2030.

Launch of 'e-AMRIT' portal: One-stop platform for information on electric vehicles

India rolled out the website e-AMRIT - https://www.e-amrit.niti.gov.in/ - at the COP26 Summit in Glasgow, which will function as a one-stop destination for all information on electric vehicles. It addresses key concerns about the adoption of EVs and their purchase - such as charging facility locations and EV financing options as well as information about investment opportunities, government policies, and available subsidies for drivers and manufacturers. 

Existing EV ecosystem in India and investment outlook

Regardless of the country’s ambitious targets, India’s EV space is at a nascent stage. However, looking at it differently – India offers the world’s largest untapped market, especially in the two-wheeler segment. 100 percent foreign direct investment is allowed in this sector under the automatic route.

The federal government is also prioritizing the shift towards clean mobility, and recent moves to amend the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) II scheme to make electric two-wheelers more affordable, is a case in point. Under the phase two of the FAME scheme, as on July 11, 2022, about 469,315 electric vehicles were supported through demand incentives amounting to about INR 18.69 billion. Approvals have been granted to 6,315 electrical buses and 2,877 EV charging stations sanctioned in 68 cities across 25 states/Union Territories. 50 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), both start-ups and established manufacturers, have registered and revalidated their 106 EV models. There are 1,576 charging stations sanctioned for set-up across nine expressways and 16 highways.

In addition, multiple production-linked incentive schemes intend to create a local manufacturing ecosystem to support goals around greater adoption of electric mobility transport. This is sought to be achieved by incentivizing fresh investments into developing indigenous supply chains for key technologies, products, and auto components.

Production-linked incentive schemes

In May 2021, the government rolled out a Production-Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI) for ACC Battery Storage Manufacturing, which will incentivize the domestic production of such batteries and reduce the dependence on imports. This will support the EV industry with the requisite infrastructure and will significantly cause a reduction in cost of EVs.

On September 15, 2021, the government approved a PLI Scheme for the automobile and drone industry, which intends to incentivize high value advanced automotive technology vehicles and products, including 'green automotive manufacturing' (see Cabinet press release here).

The PLI Scheme for the auto sector is open to existing automotive companies as well as new investors who are currently not in the automobile or auto component manufacturing business. The scheme has two components:

i) Champion OEM Incentive Scheme: This is a ‘sales value linked’ scheme, applicable on battery electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles of all segments.

ii) Component Champion Incentive Scheme: This is a ‘sales value linked’ scheme, applicable on advanced automotive technology components of vehicles, completely knocked down (CKD)/ semi knocked down (SKD) kits, vehicle aggregates of 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and tractors etc.

India's EV sales witness over 2000% surge from 2019 to 2022

Over the previous three years, EV sales have increased by more than 2,218 percent; in FY 2023 (until December 9), over 4,42,901 electric cars have been sold, compared to 19,100 in FY 2020.

Additionally, according to official data, as of December 9, about 64 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of EVs have registered, and 7,47,000 EVs had been sold as part of FAME India Phase II. More than half of these EVs are three-wheelers and are used for commercial transportation, with roughly 8,00,000 two-wheelers being used for personal transportation. India now has 5,151 EV charging stations that are in use.

Emerging market players

Many leading battery producers like Amara Raja Batteries, have picked up the cue from theses incentives to orient new investments into green technologies, including in lithium-ion batteries.

In April 2022, one of the world's most energy dense batteries at 54MWh, developed by a Bengaluru-based battery startup - Pravaig, was acquired by a European renewable energy company, Eren Groupe, for its storage applications. Having a high density implies that the battery gives more power per atom, proving to be cost-effective when compared with alternatives such as sodium-ion or aluminum air. The developers of the battery have also informed that it takes just 30 minutes to fully charge a battery. This new acquisition by a European company will not only give boost to domestic manufacturing, but will also make pave way for making EVs more economical, considering batteries usually account for 35-40 percent of the total cost.

Further responding to the opportunity that India’s EV industry presents, many leading industry players like OLA Electric Mobility Pvt, Ather Energy, and Mahindra Electrics are rapidly growing their market presence. Moreover, certain states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are rolling out innovative and timely investor-friendly policies besides building necessary infrastructure.

Recently, the American electric vehicle and clean energy company Tesla Inc. marked its entry into India by incorporating its subsidiary, Tesla India Motors and Energy Pvt Ltd, in Bengaluru.

In February 2021, Ather Energy, India’s first intelligence EV manufacturer moved its US$86.5 million factory from Bengaluru (Karnataka) to Hosur (Tamil Nadu). Ather Energy’s factory is said to have an annual production capacity of 0.11 million two-wheelers.

In March 2021, Ola Electric, the subsidiary of the unicorn Indian ride-hailing start-up, also announced that it would be setting up the world’s largest electric scooter plant in Hosur (which is a two and a half-hour drive from Bengaluru) over the next 12 weeks, at a cost of US$330 million, and aiming to produce 2 million units a year. By 2022, Ola Electric wants to scale up production to pump out 10 million vehicles annually or 15 percent of the world’s e-scooters.

Meanwhile, indicative of the market interest for electric two-wheelers in India, Ola Electric reportedly clocked INR 11 billion (US$149.26 million) in sales over a two-day purchase window. Ola Electric's website allows scooters to be reserved and the next sales window opens November 1. The electric scooters are manufactured at the Ola Futurefactory near Krishnagiri in Tamil Nadu.

On September 9, 2021, Greaves Cotton announced its entry into the multi-brand electric vehicle retail segment under the brand name AutoEVMart. According to reports, this platform will present consumers with a wide range of electric vehicles to choose from – from Ampere Electric to other brands in the EV space. Thus, AutoEVMart will serve as a marketplace for electric vehicles in India, offering e-two-wheelers and e-three-wheelers, among others, along with EV accessories. Greaves Cotton envisions first-of-its-kind multi-brand retail stores for clean tech or electric mobility in Bengaluru. 

Recently, Sterling and Wilson Pvt Ltd (SWPL), India’s leading engineering, procurement, and construction company announced its entry into the electric mobility segment in India. It has signed a 50-50 joint venture with Enel X, to be incorporated on April 1, 2021, to launch and create innovative charging infrastructure in India.

There have also been positive developments in the expansion of charging infrastructure across the country – states like Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Telangana are setting impressive targets for the deployment of public charging infrastructure to increase uptake of electric vehicles in the country.

The key reasons why these states are doing better than others are local fiscal sops, better logistics, an investor-friendly government policy, business facilitation through easier access to authorities, supply chain connectivity, and the availability of suitable land.

Karnataka was the first state to introduce a comprehensive EV policy and has emerged as a hotspot for EV businesses in India, both in EV and EV ancillary manufacturing as well as R&D segments. Tamil Nadu is also leaping forward at a commendable pace, owing to its supply ecosystem, larger land parcel, proximity to ports, and proactive investor support through administrative portals like Guidance Tamil Nadu.         

Nevertheless, while growth in the EV industry is on an upward tick, it has much ground to cover to be able to realize the government’s ambitious 2030 target. The COVID-19 pandemic not only slowed the industry’s progress, but also dampened overall market demand.

Still, market sentiment has retained positivity in some segments, accelerating in 2022 in the aftermath of escalating oil prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

During the April-September 2022 period, India recorded sales of 277,910 electric two-wheelers, which was a 404 percent increase over the same period last year that saw 55,147 units sold. In H1 FY 2022-23, 18,142 electric cars were sold, registering a 268 percent growth.

Key market players by segment - Sep-Oct 2022 data

Top Market Players in India’s EV 2-Wheeler Segment – October 2022 Sales

Source: e-vehicleinfo.com 

Top Market Players in India’s EV 3-Wheeler Segment – October 2022 Sales

Source: e-vehicleinfo.com 

Top players in India’s car market: Tata Motors, MG Motor India, Hyundai motors Ltd, and BYD India.

Source: Autocarpro.in 

Developing India’s EV market: Growth projections and government policy

Projections

In April 2019, Niti Aayog, the federal think tank, published a report titled “India’s Electric Mobility Transformation”, which pegs EV sales penetration in India at 70 percent for commercial cars, 30 percent for private cars, 40 percent for buses, and 80 percent for two- and three- wheelers by 2030. These targets, if achieved, could lead to a net reduction of 14 exajoules of energy and 846 million tons of CO2 emissions over the deployed vehicles’ lifetime. Electric vehicles sold until 2030 can cumulatively save 474 million tons of oil equivalent over their lifetime, worth US$207.33 billion.

This will help India fulfil its global commitments to lower carbon emissions and increase use of cleaner sources of energy and transportation as required by the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and EV30@30.

Policy measures

Federal policy

Several fiscal and non-fiscal measures have been put in place to facilitate the adoption of electric mobility. They are as follows:

• National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP): It was launched in 2013 by the Department of Heavy Industry (DHI) as a roadmap for the faster manufacture and adoption of EVs in India.
  • FAME Phase I: As part of the NEMMP 2020, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME India) Scheme was notified in April 2015, to promote the manufacture of electric and hybrid vehicle technology. It has mainly focused on four aspects – demand creation, technology platform, pilot projects, and charging infrastructure. For demand creation, incentives have mainly been disbursed in the form of reduced purchase prices.
  • FAME Phase II: Launched in 2019 for a period of three years, this scheme has an outlay of US$1.36 billion to be used for upfront incentives on the purchase of EVs as well as supporting the development of charging infrastructure. FICCI has asked for continuation of FAME II till 2025, along with short-term booster incentives to enhance demand. This second phase focuses on supporting electrification of public and shared transportation and aims to support, through subsidies, about 7,000 e-buses, 5,00,000 e-three wheelers, 55,000 e-four wheeler passenger cars and one million e-two wheelers. In addition, creation of charging infrastructure is also supported.
  • Amendments to FAME Phase II: On June 11, 2021, the Ministry of Heavy Industry announced further amendments to the FAME II scheme to give a boost to EV demand among consumers (see official press note here). The scheme was extended by two years, to March 31, 2024. Under the revised policy, the subsidy per electric two-wheeler (Indian-made), which is linked to the battery size, has been increased to INR 15,000 (US$204.60) per Kilowatt-hour (KWh) from INR 10,000 (US$136.40) KWh. Furthermore, electric two-wheeler manufacturers can now give discounts of up to 40 percent to consumers, which is a significant raise from the previous cap of 20 percent. The eligibility criteria for these electric two-wheelers to qualify for subsidy under the FAME II scheme include a minimum range of 80 km on single charge and a minimum top speed of 40 km per hour. Nine cities with a population of over four million will receive support for electric buses - Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Kolkata, Surat, and Pune.
• Ministry of Power: It has clarified that charging EVs is considered a service, which means that operating EV charging stations will not require a license. It has also issued a policy on charging infrastructure to enable faster adoption of EVs. The revised consolidated Guidelines & Standards for Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles was promulgated on January 14, 2022. Exhaustive in scope, these guidelines include provisions for a) individual owners of EVs and b) for public charging stations (PCS) infrastructure. It covers land use and access, power tariffs, state and central government roles, timelines for providing connectivity for installation of PCS, among other concerns.
  In November 2022, the Power Ministry amended the consolidated guidelines: see here.
  - Public charging stations shall have the feature of prepaid collection of service charges with the time of the day rates and discount for solar hours.
  - A Committee under Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to recommend to the State Government the ceiling limit of service charges to be levied. This Committee shall also recommend "time of the day rate " for service charges as well as the discount to be given for charging during solar hours.
• Ministry of Road Transport and Highways: It has announced that both commercial as well as private battery-operated vehicles will be issued green license plates. It has also notified that all battery operated, ethanol-powered, and methanol-powered transport vehicles will be exempted from the commercial permit requirement.
• Department of Science and Technology: It has launched a grand challenge for developing the Indian Standards for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure.
• Niti Aayog: The National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage has been approved by the cabinet, and the inter-ministerial steering committee of the Mission will be chaired by the CEO of Niti Aayog. The Mission aims to create a Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP) for five years till 2024, to support setting up large-scale, export-competitive integrated batteries and cell-manufacturing giga plants in India, as well as localizing production across the entire electric vehicle value chain. On April 20, 2022, the think tank released a draft battery swapping policy and invited comments from relevant stakeholders by June 5, 2022. The draft policy, which will be valid till March 31, 2025 from the date of its notification, is specifically designed for battery swapping systems to be used for two-wheelers and three-wheelers.

States/union territories policy

Over 27 states and UTs have formulated strategy plans for transforming mobility to provide their citizens with safe, inclusive, economic, and clean transport options. While some states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have had a head start due to preplanned public policies, targeted investor incentives, as well as support infrastructure, other states too have drafted policies to stimulate market demand and create infrastructure.

In September 2021, Assam announced its Electric Vehicle Policy, 2021 and plans to phase out fuel-based vehicles by 2030. As a first step, the Assam government shall convert all government vehicles and its public bus fleet to EV alternatives. The state also aims to deploy 200,000 electric vehicles in the next five years. Assam's Industries, Commerce and Public Enterprises Department said the new EV Policy incentivizes people to switch to EVs. Assam also offers several incentives for EV manufacturing in the state (under the North East Industrial Development Scheme, 2017 and the Industrial and Investment Policy of Assam, 2019). 

Most recently in June 2022, Haryana also joined other states in approving its EV policy. The policy provides a holistic framework to develop Haryana into a EV manufacturing hub and at the same time developing an enabling ecosystem to augment its adoption – through development of charging infrastructure, skill development and R&D in EV technology. In fact, the Haryana state government has declared the year 2022 as "Year of Electric Vehicles".

Challenges faced by EV industry

• Insufficient charging infrastructure: In 2019, there were only 650 charging stations in India as against over 0.3 million in China. Lack of sufficient charging infrastructure is one of the primary reasons why customers often refrain from purchasing EVs.
• High costs: Along with the range anxiety (kms/charge), another major concern among the potential customers is the current high price of EVs. As compared to lower-end (internal combustion engine) ICE cars, electric cars in the same segment tend to be more expensive. This is mainly because of the higher cost of technology used in the EVs, which constitutes a substantial portion of the cost, not leaving much scope for other features usually available in premium cars. It is expected that in future, with increased R&D and market competitiveness, the price factor will be rationalized to suit the price sensitivity, which in India is a primary factor influencing purchase, especially in the lower-end car segment.
  With the recent announcement of subsidies, the price rationalization of EVs in the two-wheeler segment is on cards. Since the government’s fast-changing priorities are now biased towards sustainable, clean electric mobility, industry watchers expect a similar push towards easing adoption of other electric vehicles like cars and buses soon.
• Limited options: Since it is still a budding industry in India, customers have a very limited range of products to choose from. Increased investment in the sector will make it more competitive in due time and this will help create further demand.
• Lower mileage: Since the industry is young, there is immense scope for R&D. As of today, EVs in India are not cost competitive to an average customer as internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles prove to be more cost effective.
• Higher dependency on imports: Reliance on imports of battery as well as other components is also one of the factors adding to the cost of EVs in India.
• Grid challenges: Another concern is regarding the price of charging EVs at private charging stations once EVs become mainstream. According to Brookings India, projections for 2030 show that even with a fair penetration of EVs, the increase in demand for electricity is likely to be about 100 TWh (tera watt-hours) or about four percent of the total power generation capacity. So, increasing methods of power generation are necessary to meet that growth in demand.

Key takeaways

Ultimately, the scope of India’s EV market growth rests on availability of capital for original equipment manufacturers, battery manufacturers, and charge point operators as well as improvements to infrastructure and diversified options for consumers.

Realizing India's EV ambition will also require an estimated annual battery capacity of 158 GWh by FY 2030, which provides huge investment opportunities for investors. Enabling policy support measures are a critical need at this juncture.

The government appears to be aware of this. It has been rolling out incentives to boost market demand in priority segments like electric two-wheelers, and localizing production of key components like ACC battery storage as well as electric vehicles and auto components through respective PLI schemes. Besides, several Indian states have now passed EV policies intending to attract industry investments and make EV adoption more viable proposition for the consumer market.

This article was originally published on March 11, 2021. It was last updated December 26, 2022.